PPP: QBs Re-evaluated

With the retirement of Brett Favre, I have decided to re-evaluate the position of quarterback for the Packer Position Profiles series, as Aaron Rodgers is the new starter. I'm not going to re-do the whole blog, just a few sections.

2008 Outlook
With the aforementioned departure of Favre, Rodgers is now "the man." Rodgers will be counted on to replace some of Favre's production on the field. However, the emergence of Ryan Grant at running back significantly reduces the pressure on Rodgers. The key to Rodgers' performance will be the regression or progression of the offensive line. Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher are aging, while Scott Wells, Jason Spitz, Darryn Colledge, and Junius Coston were very inconsistent last year. The key for a young quarterback's success or failure in the NFL usually depends on offensive line play. That will be the key for Rodgers. The Packers only carried two quarterbacks on their roster last season, until Rodgers' hamstring injury, but I expect the Packers to carry three this season. Craig Nall could re-sign now that he has a chance to compete for the job or the Packers could make a deal for a veteran quarterback.

The Green Bay Press-Gazette is reporting that the Packers could go after veteran quarterback to provide more leadership and mentoring for Rodgers. Among the mentioned quarterbacks are Mark Brunell, Gus Frerotte, Trent Green, Kelly Holcomb, Jamie Martin, and Vinny Testaverde. Other younger quarterbacks mentioned are Byron Leftwich, Daunte Culpepper, and J.P. Losman. In my opinion, none of these options are particularly appealing. To me, the best option would be to bring Brunell in to mentor Rodgers and be the backup. Brunell, a former Packer, does not have anything left in the tank and would not be brought in to start, giving him opportunity to be a mentor, a job I think he could handle. Signing Leftwich or Culpepper would only be necessary in an emergency, as neither of these guys really wants to be a backup, and fact is, neither are that good of a quarterback either. If need be, they could probably hold down the fort for another year or two for Rodgers, but their addition would be totally unnecessary. All I have to say about Losman is that if the Packers traded for him, Ted Thompson would lose a lot of credibility.

2008 Projected Grade: B- (down from B+)

Draft Needs
In the initial edition of PPP: Quarterbacks, I said that the Packers could take a flyer and possibly select someone like Ricky Santos or Josh Johnson in the later rounds. Now I feel that the Packers almost definitely will. With Johnson's combine performance, I do not think he would be available in later rounds and his does not seem like it would be a good fit for the Packers. His 4.4 speed would be nice, but it is not what the Packers need. I could see the Packers taking a risk on Penn State's Anthony Morelli or San Diego State's Kevin O'Connell. Both are big (Morelli is 6'4" while O'Connell is 6'6") and have great arms. The Packer taking a quarterback above the third round would be a reach in my opinion. I will predict that a quarterback will be picked between the third and fifth rounds. Johnson, Santos, Morelli, or O'Connell are the top four I see the Packers choosing from, if they do choose a quarterback.

Your thoughts on the Packers quarterback situation?

Passing of the Torch

With the retirement of Brett Favre, the Aaron Rodgers era officially begins. As I said before, I am perfectly fine with Brett's retirement, but the adjustment is still there. As Packer fans, it is time to accept the Aaron Rodgers era with open arms. We know Brett had an amazing career and there are not enough superlatives to describe it. So I'm not going to try. There are plenty of people singing his praises already, and I will choose to do so, only not on this blog.

So without further a due, Aaron Rodgers, starting quarterback of the Green Bay Packers.

At a Super Bowl press conference, coach Mike McCarthy said that Rodgers is "the man" after Favre's retirement. Well Mr. Rodgers, you are officially "the man." So let's learn a little about the man.

Aaron Charles Rodgers was born December 2, 1983 in Chico, California. Rodgers was a two-year starting quarterback at Pleasant Valley High School in Chico, where he set state records with 440 all-purpose yards and 6 touchdowns in one game and 2,466 total yards in a season. Rodgers gained 4,419 passing yards in his two years at quarterback. Lightly recruited out of college, Rodgers' only offer was to walk-on at Illinois, an offer which he declined. Rodgers attended Butte College, leading them to a 10-1 record, and decided to transfer to a Division I school after his sophomore year.

California coach Jeff Tedford discovered Rodgers while recruiting another player, and offered him a scholarship. Rodgers arrived on campus in 2003 and started in the fifth game of the season against Illinois. Rodgers started the rest of the year leading Cal to an 8-6 record, including a victory over USC in his second start. Rodgers also started the Insight Bowl against Virginia Tech, a game which the Golden Bears won. He tied the school record for 300-yard games with five and had only 1.43% of his passes intercepted, a school record.

In his junior campaign, Rodgers helped Cal acquire a No. 4 ranking in the regular season. The Golden Bears lost only one game that year, a 23-17 overtime heartbreaker to USC, a game in which he completed 23 consecutive passes. Rodgers also set a school record for completion percentage in that game, completing 85.3% of his passes. Rodgers shared Cal's Offensive MVP award in 2004 while being named First Team All-Pac 10 and Honorable Mention All-American. After a 45-31 Holiday Bowl loss to Texas Tech, Rodgers decided to enter the 2005 NFL Draft.

Going into the draft, the San Francisco 49ers were thought to pick either Utah quarterback Alex Smith or Rodgers with the first pick in the draft. This decision was a hot news story in the days leading up to the draft, creating much debate on who should be picked first. San Francisco opted to choose Smith, who has had a below-mediocre career, over Rodgers. Thus began Rodgers' freefall to the Packers at the 24^th pick. Rodgers was at the draft, which created one of the worst P.R. nightmares in draft history, as he was ushered off into a side-room during the draft.

He signed to a rookie contract worth $7.7 million with $5.4 million guaranteed over five years. The contract could be worth up to $24.5 million if all incentives were met. Rodgers spent the Packers 4-12 season as backup to Favre, and saw limited game action against the New Orleans Saints and Baltimore Ravens. In his second year, Rodgers relieved Favre after an injury in a 35-0 loss against New England and broke his foot, ending his 2006 campaign. In 2007, Rodgers was again relegated to backup duty, but got his first taste of the spotlight. Against Dallas on November 29, 2007, Favre suffered an arm injury and Rodgers rallied the Packers from a 17-point deficit to within three points, before the Packers succumbed 37-27. Rodgers oozed potential in this game, completing 18 of 26 passes for 201 yards and his first career touchdown. The next week in practice, Rodgers pulled his hamstring and did not see action for the rest of the season.

If Rodgers wants to be "the man" in Green Bay, he will have to overcome many different obstacles. First off, he has an unreasonably large pair of shoes to fill. Second, he has plenty of doubters. Scouts criticized his size before the draft, saying that, at 6'2", he was too small to play quarterback in the NFL. There are also questions about his pedigree, as many speculate he is just a Tedford product. In his career as a college coach at Fresno State, Oregon, and Cal, Tedford has had six quarterbacks picked in the first round, including Rodgers, Trent Dilfer, Akili Smith, Joey Harrington, and Kyle Boller. Quite the list there, eh?

However, Rodgers is not that green. He has sat for three years behind one of the greatest quarterbacks of all-time. Although Favre was initially reluctant to help Rodgers learn the ropes, he came around and provided some leadership to the young quarterback. Rodgers has a multiple offensive weapons at his disposal as well. Ryan Grant will take a huge amount of pressure of Rodgers, giving the Packers a reliable running game and easing reliance on the pass. Rodgers has one of the best young corps of receivers to rely on as well, with Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, and James Jones. However, if the Packers want Rodgers to be able to do anything, they will need to shore up a mercurial offensive line. The key to Rodgers' performance will be the aging Mark Tauscher and Chad Clifton along with the young guys up front. If they are not able to mesh, Rodgers will be taking a seat. Often.

Brett Favre is gone. We must accept that, as hard as it is. I myself may be taking this a little hard, as I am in a four-day mourning period where I am wearing my Favre jersey non-stop, before putting it away until the first Packers game of next year.

As Packer fans and PackerNation, we must give Aaron Rodgers our full support.

And yes, ladies, he is single.

The End of an Era

On March 4, 2008, at approximately 11:34 AM, I learned the shocking news that Brett Favre is walking away from the game after 17 years in the league when my AP Euro teacher logged onto Yahoo! I shortly confirmed the story thereafter.

Due to the fact that I am still in school and should be studying for a Spanish test, I will post more later updating the developments of this news story that has yet to sink in. Please stay with PackerNation for more developments in this turn events.

Thanks.

And please, PackerNation, be rational. No suicides.

--DJ

Poll Results: March 3, 2008

The first PackerNation poll has come to a close. The question "Will Brett Favre return next season?" received 57 responses. Fifty (50) voters, or 87% of the vote, said that Favre will indeed return next season while seven (7) voters, or 12% of the vote said that Favre will not return next season.

Many people inside and outside the Packers organization feel that Favre will return, including new team president Mark Murphy who told the Associated Press that he is confident about Favre's return. Others, including head coach Mike McCarthy do feel that Favre will return, but that he needs his space and to take his time in the decision.

On Sunday, NFL.com's Adam Schefter reported that Favre would not return if the Packers did not acquire or at least try to acquire New England Patriots wide receiver Randy Moss in free agency. I feel that the Packers do need a big Moss-like wide receiver in their corps, although Ruvell Martin could eventually fill that bill. Someone like Indiana wide receiver James Hardy, whom I have already mentioned, would be a great addition. I feel that Favre's decision should not totally hinge on the addition of Moss, but it would definitely help the team to add him.
This week's poll is "Was trading Corey Williams to the Cleveland Browns a good move?" The poll will stay up for approximately one week, until March 10, 2008. Vote, and make your opinion heard on the matters of the Packers.

Goodbye, franchise

The Green Bay Packers traded franchised defensive tackle Corey Williams to the Cleveland Browns on Friday for a second-round draft pick in the 2008 NFL Draft. The Packers had franchised Williams, who was set to start free agency, earlier in February. Williams was set to earn $6.363 million as the Packers franchise player, but the mega-deal received by Raiders defensive tackle Tommy Kelly obviously scared the Packers off a bit, as it did seem logical to for the team to pump that type of money into a player who has limited action under his belt. Making the decision easier for the Packers is the amount of depth at the defensive tackle position. Colin Cole and Johnny Jolly are the favorites for next year's starting jobs, as both performed very well in 2007 before being derailed by injuries. The Packers 2007 first-round pick, Justin Harrell, looks to also be a major player in the defensive line rotation in 2008.

The Browns signed Williams to a six-year contract worth $38 million with $16.3 million guaranteed. The Browns look to have one of the top defensive lines in 2008, also acquiring Shaun Rogers from the Lions in exchange for Leigh Bodden and a third-round pick.

PPP: Running Backs

The second in the Packer Position Profiles series.

The Packers opened the 2007 season with multiple question marks at running back after the departure of long-time running back Ahman Green. The Packers came into camp with two rookies and injured veteran vying for the open position. Noah Herron was placed on injured reserve during training camp, taking him out of the running for the job and possibly ending his Packers career, while Vernand Morency suffered a knee injury in camp, effectively removing him from the race. The two horses left in camp were Brandon Jackson, a second-round pick from Nebraska, and DeShawn Wynn, a seventh-round pick from Florida. Jackson was the victor coming out of camp, but a little-thought of wild-card was entered into the draw with the acquisition of Ryan Grant from the New York Giants one week before the season opener.

Jackson earned the start for the first three games of the season and performed questionably before he was usurped by Wynn. Wynn started four games before being injured in Week 8 against Denver. This gave Green Bay their third starting running back of the season with Grant. Grant almost single-handedly (I know some credit has to go to a young and developing offensive line) turned the Packers non-existent running game into one of the most feared in the league, balancing out one of the league's top offenses. Grant took pressure off of Brett Favre and the passing game, making the offense even more effective. After returning from injury, Morency was primarily used as a third-down back and had more receiving yards than rushing yards.

Ryan Grant
Rushes: 188
Yards: 956
AVG: 5.1
TDs: 8
Long: 66t
Rec: 30
Yards: 145
TDs: 0
AVG: 4.8
Long: 21

Best Game: Week 14 vs. Oakland
Rushes: 29
Yards: 156
AVG: 5.4
TDs: 1
Long: 26
Rec: 2
Yards: 6
TDs: 0
AVG: 3.0
Long: 5

Grant proved to be somewhat of a savior for the Packers offense in 2007. At the beginning of the season, the Packers offense was almost strictly one-dimensional, but after Week X vs. Denver, Grant helped turn the tide of the offense. Despite his great performance, Grant displayed some glaring inconsistencies. He never ran for more than 100 yards in consecutive games, and his statistics were the benefactor of the big play multiple times. In Week 16 against Chicago, Grant ran 14 times for 100 yards, an average of 7.1 yards per carry. However, 90 of those yards came on two carries, his 66-yard touchdown run and a 24-yard scamper later in the game. That leaves him with 12 carries for 10 yards, and average of 0.83 yards per carry. If Grant wants to stick around and be a great back, he will have to avoid more situations such as this one. Regardless of these problems, Grant proved he could be an NFL running back. He does require an insurance policy in my opinion, however.

Brandon Jackson
Rushes: 75
Yards: 267
AVG: 3.6
TDs: 1
Long: 44
Rec: 16
Yards: 130
TDs: 0
AVG: 8.1
Long: 16

Best Game: Week 17 vs. Detroit
Rushes: 20
Yards: 113
AVG: 5.6
TDs: 0
Long: 46
Rec: 2
Yards: 22
TDs: 0
AVG: 11.0
Long: 13

Jackson left camp as the starter, although he was on rocky footing for most of the time. As three games as the starter, he failed to perform up to expectations. Jackson was then demoted to spot duty and special teams. Coach Mike McCarthy feels that Jackson could become a special teams ace in the future.

DeShawn Wynn
Rushes: 50
Yards: 203
AVG: 4.1
TDs: 4
Long: 44
Rec: 9
Yards: 73
TDs: 0
AVG: 8.1
Long: 18

Best Game: Week 5 vs. Chicago
Rushes: 13
Yards: 78
AVG: 6.0
TDs: 1
Long: 44
Rec: 1
Yards: 13
TDs: 0
AVG: 13.0
Long: 13

Wynn seized the starting job in Week 4 after seeing limited action in the first three games of the season. Wynn was successful, but was injured on his first carry in Week 8 at Denver. If he had not been injured, he most likely would continued to be the feature back in McCarthy's system, and we would have never heard of Ryan Grant. I would expect Wynn to be the second string running back at camp next year unless Jackson makes significant strides.

Vernand Morency, the primary third-down running back last year, is expected to leave in free agency, along with Noah Herron, was put on IR after a knee injury in training camp.

2007 Grade: B

2008 Outlook
The outlook for 2008 is much clearer than it was for 2007. In 2007, no one knew who the starting running back would be week-in and week-out. After Week 8, however, Grant emerged and helped carry the team into the playoffs. I do not think Grant will be able to repeat his 2007 performance. People now know who he is and they will be sure to put someone on him and start to gameplan around him. Grant will not be able to take the league by storm as he did in 2007. Also, Grant needs to develop some consistency and gets his yards per carry average up and not rely on really long runs for most of his yards.

2008 Projected Grade: B

Draft Needs
None at the moment. I could see the Packers making a minor veteran pickup in free agency or drafting one the guys ranked outside the top 15 on NFL Draft Watch in the late rounds.

PPP: Quarterbacks

In 2007, the Green Bay Packers quarterback play exceeded all expectations. Coming into the season, Brett Favre was thought to be on the downside of his career, but proved the pundits wrong, while Aaron Rodgers showed that he could play. Ingle Martin's dismal preseason doomed his hopes of making the roster while Craig Nall came back on board due to Rodgers' injury.

Let's take a look at each quarterback's stats:

Brett Favre
Comp: 356
Att: 535
Yds: 4155
Comp%: 66.3
TD: 28
INT: 15
Long: 82t
Sack: 15
Rating: 95.7

Best game (tough decision): Week 3 vs. San Diego
Comp: 28
Att: 45
Yds: 369
TDs: 3
INT: 0
Comp%: 62.2
Rating: 110.3

Favre had a remarkable year in 2007. No one expected him to have this type of year at the age he had it at. He owns most of the passing record books now and helped the Packers to their first NFC Championship Game appearance since the 1997 season. Favre missed most of the Dallas game with shoulder and elbow injuries but returned the next week, keeping his starts streak intact. The Packers finished 13-3.

Aaron Rodgers
Comp: 20
Att: 28
Yds: 218
Comp%: 71.4
TD: 1
INT: 0
Long: 43
Sack: 3
Rating: 106.0

Best game (easy decision): Week 13 @ Dallas
Comp: 16
Att: 26
Yds: 201
TDs: 1
INT: 0
Comp%: 69.2
Rating: 104.8

Rodgers finally got his first taste of big game action Week 13 at Dallas in front of a national, DirecTV-subscribing audience. Rodgers relieved Favre early in the game and did his best to keep the Packers in the game, pulling them to within three before the Cowboys pulled away. Rodgers, as Favre's heir apparent, has seen much scrutiny in his short career. He showed he could play against Dallas, however, but there are questions about his health, as he pulled his hamstring the next week in practice, causing him to miss most of the rest of the season, and he broke his foot in 2006, ending his campaign early. Rodgers is the future of the Packers.

Craig Nall
Comp: 7
Att: 15
Yds: 88
Comp%: 46.7
TD: 1
INT: 0
Long: 32t
Sack: 1
Rating: 87.6

Best game (easy decision): Week 17 vs. Detroit
Comp: 7
Att: 15
Yds: 88
TDs: 1
INT: 0
Comp%: 46.7
Rating: 87.6

Nall was re-signed by the Packers after Rodgers' hamstring injury. Nall was a Packers backup from 2002-2005. He is not expected to return next season, as he continues his search for a starting job.

2007 Grade: A

2008 Outlook
The outlook for 2008 looks very good for the Packers quarterbacks. Favre is still solid and adjusted well to be being a game manager with Ryan Grant's emergence. His willingness to tutor Rodgers will continue to be a help. Some regression can be expected with Favre's age, while Rodgers showed in 2007 that he could play. I would expect to see more of Rodgers in the second and third quarters of games, and earlier in garbage time. Favre has to retire eventually (I think), but he will be able to produce solidly in 2008. He will not be able to perform at the 2007 level, but I would say somewhere in the neighborhood of 3500 yards and 20 TDs. And Rodgers is waiting in the wings for him, if needed.

2008 Projected Grade: B+

Draft Needs
I personally do not think there are any. I have enough faith in Rodgers that the Packers do not need to draft him. However, I have seen mock drafts with the Packers picking Kentucky quarterback Andre Woodson in the second round. Personally, I think that is too early for the Packers to pick a quarterback. I can see the Packers taking a risk on a small-school quarterback such as Josh Johnson from San Diego or Ricky Santos from New Hampshire, much like they did with Ingle Martin out of Furman a few years back. But if the need is not there, why address it?